Stamp Duty Change Expected to Spark Homebuying Rush

Home sales will “jump” at the beginning of next year as people try to buy before the rise in stamp duty, one of the UK’s biggest lenders has predicted.

From March 2025, changes introduced in Wednesday’s Budget mean many will pay the tax when they would not have done previously.

Nationwide said this would affect one fifth of first-time buyers.

However, the impact of these changes is not expected to be as big as previous ones because high interest rates are still putting off buyers.

“Affordability is also still relatively stretched at present as a result of the higher interest rate environment, which is acting to dampen housing market activity more generally,” said chief economist Robert Gardner.

He added that the changes, which only apply to England and Northern Ireland, had been expected, meaning they will likely have less effect than changes in 2020 and 2016.

He predicted that the boost to activity will be followed by a slump over the next six months, based on what happened after previous stamp duty changes.

Nationwide also said the impact would be less in areas where house prices are cheaper, such as Northern Ireland and northern England, and more where homes are pricier, such as London and south-east England.

At the moment, buyers of homes worth less than £250,000 don’t pay stamp duty. This was doubled from £125,000 under Liz Truss’s mini-Budget in September 2022.

The threshold is £425,000 for those buying their first property. This was raised from £300,000 as part of the mini-Budget.

These higher thresholds will end in March 2025, when they will revert to previous levels.

Verona Frankish, chief executive of online estate agent Yopa, said the changes “will certainly light a fire under those buyers currently progressing through the transaction process, or considering a purchase this side of Christmas”.

However, she added that any drop in mortgage rates next year would have a much bigger impact.

Meanwhile, changes to stamp duty for buy-to-let landlords and second-home buyers announced in the Budget came into effect on Thursday, with the additional tax they face rising from 3% to 5%.

Some have predicted this will lead to a drop in landlords buying properties to rent out.

The average price of a UK home hit £265,738 in October, according to the latest Nationwide data.

House prices remain lower than their high in 2022, but they have been slowly rising over the last year as interest rates have fallen and buyers have returned to the market.

Source: BBC

House Price Index: October 2024

The average house price in the UK is £267,100 as of August 2024 (published in October 2024).

Property prices are now at 0.7% inflation compared to a year ago. However, the average UK house price is set to rise by 2.5% by the end of the year.

Home buyers are benefitting from the lowest average mortgage rates for 15 months, which is supporting double-digit growth in all key measures of sales market activity. Annual house price inflation is positive, but remains below 1%.

Nationally, home buyer demand is up 26% on this time last year, as more homes are listed for sale and sellers look for somewhere new to buy.

The average mortgage rate for a new 5-year 75% LTV loan is 4.3%, compared to 5.5% a year ago, the lowest since May 2023.

And intense competition among lenders is keeping rates attractive for buyers, especially for those with larger amounts of equity.

The number of sales agreed is now 25% higher than a year ago as households that have held off making moving decisions over the last 2 years return to the market.

Sales are up by over 10% across the UK, and more than 30% across the East Midlands and North East.

Source: Zoopla

Rachel Reeves Will Not Raise Capital Gains Tax On Second Homes

Rachel Reeves will not use her budget to increase capital gains tax on the sale of second homes.

The Times reports that capital gains on profits from the sale of shares and some other assets, which is currently levied at 20%, is likely to increase by “several percentage points”. But the rate will not change for second homes.

The chancellor will reportedly leave the rate of capital gains tax on the sale of second homes and buy-to-let properties untouched amid concerns that increasing it would cost money.

When the Conservatives lowered the rate from 28% to 24% at the last budget, the Office for Budget Responsibility said that doing so would actually raise nearly £700 million because of increased property transactions.

Ministers are reportedly concerned that raising tax on the sale of second homes would damage overall revenues.

More than half of all capital gains relates to the sale of shares, while just 12% is from the sale of property.

It is understood that ministers discussed their options and it was concluded that people would deliberately defer selling assets in a bid to avoid being hit by higher rates.

One government source suggested that revenues from increasing capital gains tax would be in the “low billions”.

Reeves is said to be drawing up plans for up to £40bn worth of tax rises and spending cuts to avoid a return to austerity and real-term cuts to government departments. Most of the money will have to come from tax rises.

Stuart Adam, a senior economist at the Institute for Fiscal Studies, told the press: “Simply increasing headline rates of CGT would raise limited revenue and cause economic damage. If the chancellor wants to raise significant sums, it is essential that rate increases are accompanied by changes to the way the tax works — removing some ill-conceived reliefs while giving more generous deductions for investment costs and losses.”

Source: Property Industry Eye

UK Housing Market Rebounds With Sales And Price Hikes

The UK housing market is showing signs of a rebound, with new data from the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) highlighting a rise in house prices and sales due to falling borrowing costs.

For the first time since October 2022, the RICS house price balance turned positive, hitting +11 in September and beating forecasts. Surveyors are feeling more optimistic, with a net balance of +54 expecting price hikes over the next year—the highest optimism since April 2022. Sales expectations have shot up to a net balance of +45 from just +3 last year. This recovery follows August’s dip in borrowing costs, as the Bank of England kept its benchmark rate at 5%. Many investors expect a rate cut in November, which could further boost the market. Meanwhile, Halifax notes house prices are rising at their fastest rate in months, though an upcoming increase in capital gains tax might lead to more listings, potentially tightening rental supply.

The rejuvenated UK property market is attracting investor interest, as lower borrowing costs and strong price forecasts create an optimistic outlook. With the Bank of England’s next move under scrutiny, real estate-linked sectors might experience volatility, presenting both opportunities and risks.

The UK’s housing revival mirrors wider economic themes, such as fiscal policy shifts and interest rate projections. With potential tax adjustments ahead and global inflationinfluencing monetary policies, the UK situation highlights the critical balance between government actions and market developments, a trend seen worldwide.

Source: Finimize

Nationwide Cuts Rates to sub-3.75%

Nationwide is set to launch new competitive mortgage products, including a five-year fixed-rate mortgage at 3.74% and two-year fixes starting from 3.89%, undercutting Santander’s current market-leading offerings. These rates are a significant move as lenders compete to attract borrowers, particularly with interest rates falling after a period of high increases.

In addition, Nationwide has expanded its Helping Hand initiative for first-time buyers, now offering lending up to six times a borrower’s income with a 95% loan-to-value (LTV) ratio. This is likely in response to competitors providing mortgages at 5.5 times income, as lenders push to support first-time buyers in an increasingly challenging housing market.

Other major lenders are also cutting rates: NatWest has lowered its two-year fixes to just above 4%, Accord has reduced its fixed rates, and MPowered has made further rate cuts. These reductions come at a time when the market is adjusting to the end of the Bank of England’s aggressive rate hikes, providing some relief to prospective buyers and those looking to remortgage.

Source: Property Notify

Autumn Property Market Sees Early Boost

Rightmove has released its House Price Index for September.  It can be seen here, and says:

As the property market enters the typically busy autumn season, early action is already underway, with both buyers and sellers capitalising on improved conditions. The average new seller asking price has risen by 0.8% (+£2,974) this month to £370,759, which is double the long-term average September increase. This rise in prices is being driven by increased activity levels, as mortgage rates trend downward and property choice expands.

Strong Rebound in Sales Activity

– Sales agreed between buyers and sellers have surged by 27% compared to last year, when the market was more subdued.

– The number of new sellers coming to the market has increased by 14% year-on-year, signalling renewed confidence among homeowners.

– The average number of available homes per estate agent is now the highest since 2014, at 33 homes per branch.

Caution Still Looms

Despite the positive market movement, caution remains, with value-conscious buyerstaking time to secure the right property. It now takes an average of 60 days for sellers to find a buyer—three days longerthan last year. Additionally, while mortgage rates are lower than their July 2023 peak, the current 5-year fixed mortgage rate of 4.67% is still nearly double the 2.34% from three years ago.

Uncertainties Ahead

With the Autumn Statement looming, there are uncertainties about how potential tax changes, especially regarding capital gains tax, could impact the market. A record number of former rental properties are currently being listed for sale, suggesting more landlords are exiting the market in anticipation of upcoming policy changes.

Source: Property Notify

The Renters’ Rights Bill Published

The Renters’ Rights Bill was published today (11/9/24) and introduces a series of reforms designed to increase protections for tenants while maintaining a balance that allows landlords to manage their properties effectively.

Here’s a breakdown of its key measures:

Abolition of Section 21 Evictions: The bill eliminates “no-fault” evictions (Section 21), moving to a simpler tenancy structure where all assured tenancies are periodic, meaning they have no fixed end date, providing tenants with greater security and the ability to challenge poor practices and unfair rent hikes without the fear of eviction.

Fair Possession Grounds: It reforms possession grounds to ensure they are fair to both tenants and landlords. Tenants will have more security, while landlords will still be able to recover their property in reasonable circumstances, like if they need to sell or move in. Additional safeguards protect tenants from misuse of these grounds.

Stronger Protections Against Unfair Rent Increases: The bill allows tenants to challenge excessive rent increases aimed at forcing them out, with independent tribunals able to intervene if rents are unfairly raised above market rates.

Private Rented Sector Landlord Ombudsman: This will be a new independent body to resolve disputes between landlords and tenants quickly and fairly, with decisions that are binding, similar to the system used for social housing.

Private Rented Sector Database: A database will be created for landlords, allowing them to demonstrate compliance with legal obligations. Tenants can use this to make informed decisions, and it will aid councils in targeting enforcement.

Pet-Friendly Provisions: Landlords will have to consider tenants’ requests for pets and cannot unreasonably refuse them. To mitigate concerns, landlords will be able to request pet insurance to cover any potential damage caused by pets.

Decent Homes Standard: The bill will apply the same quality standards required for social housing (Decent Homes Standard) to the private rented sector, ensuring that rental homes meet safety and quality benchmarks.

Awaab’s Law: This measure requires landlords to address serious hazards in rental properties within legally defined timeframes to ensure tenant safety, inspired by tragic cases where unsafe conditions led to harm.

Anti-Discrimination: Landlords and letting agents will be prohibited from discriminating against tenants based on benefits or having children, ensuring fairer access to housing for all.

End to Rental Bidding: The bill makes it illegal for landlords or agents to accept or solicit bids over the advertised rent, ensuring transparency and fairness in the rental process.

Local Authority Enforcement: New measures expand local authorities’ powers to enforce regulations, with civil penalties and requirements to report on enforcement activities, ensuring that standards are upheld.

Strengthened Rent Repayment Orders: The bill strengthens rent repayment orders by extending them to cover superior landlords (those who sublet their properties), doubling the maximum financial penalty for violations, and ensuring that repeat offenders are required to repay the full amount owed.

The Government has stated that these reforms aim to create a fairer, more secure, and regulated private rented sector in the UK, improving conditions for tenants while allowing landlords to retain reasonable control over their properties.

The Bill can be seen here, and accompanying guide here.

Source: Property Notify

House Prices Growing at Fastest Rate in nearly Two Years

House prices are now growing at the fastest annual rate in nearly two years, the UK’s largest building society has said, with rises expected to continue.

In the year up to August, houses became 2.4% more valuable with the average property costing £265,375, according to Nationwide.

But prices are still below the all-time highs recorded in the summer of 2022 by about 3%. During that time people were spending lockdown savings as COVID-19 restrictions were unwinding and borrowing rates had not reached the current highs.

The annual increase and associated increase in buying demand is still “subdued by historic standards”, Nationwide said.When the broader economic conditions of high interest rates and house prices costing many multiples of wages are considered, the price increase demonstrates resilience in the sector, the lender added.

What next?

Prices will continue to rise, Nationwide forecast.

“Providing the economy continues to recover steadily, as we expect, housing market activity is likely to strengthen gradually as affordability constraints ease through a combination of modestly lower interest rates and earnings outpacing house price growth,” Nationwide’s chief economist Robert Gardner said.

Tom Bill, head of UK residential research at estate agent Knight Frank, said: “The UK housing market is in a better place than it was last summer as inflation comes under control and lenders trim their rates.

“Financial markets are pricing in another cut this year and as mortgage rates fall this autumn, it should underpin transactions and modest single-digit price growth.”

Iain McKenzie, chief executive of the Guild of Property Professionals, added: “Estate agents across the country are telling us that the market conditions in their areas are improving and there is a strong demand for good-quality housing.”

Source: Sky News

UK Property Market Set for Busy Autumn as Listings Hit 7-Year High

Britain’s housing market is set for a busy autumn after the Bank of England cut interest rates this month for the first time since Covid-19 struck, with the number of homes listed for sale hitting a seven-year high.

The stock of homes for sale in the UK was 14 per cent higher over the past month compared with the same time in 2023, according to analysis published by property website Zoopla on Wednesday.

More buyers and sellers have been coming back to the market after almost two years of muted activity caused by higher borrowing costs, as the BoE raised its benchmark rate to a 16-year high of 5.25 per cent in a bid to tame inflation.

As interest rates fall — financial markets are pricing in about two more quarter-point cuts by the BoE this year — Zoopla expects the number of home sales to end 2024 roughly 10 per cent higher than 2023. But it warned that the surge of supply meant sellers should not expect high prices.

“With this level of supply, people have got to keep their feet on the ground on price,” said Richard Donnell, executive director at Zoopla. “Especially in the wider south of England, there is affordability pressure that means buyers will use that choice to keep negotiating price.”

The number of sellers cutting their asking prices by 5 per cent or more was at an elevated level of about 20 per cent, and these properties took more than 2.5 times longer to sell than properties that had not been discounted, Zoopla added.

House prices rose 2.7 per cent in the year to June, unchanged from May, according to official figures, leaving the average property at £288,000. The average five-year fixed rate mortgage with a 25 per cent deposit has fallen to 4.55 per cent from 5.55 per cent a year ago, with the cheapest rates now just below 4 per cent, according to Rightmove’s mortgage tracker. However, analysts do not expect a sharp fall in mortgage rates, meaning buyers’ budgets will remain squeezed.

A typical mortgage now costs 39 per cent of the median full-time salary, up from 30 per cent before the Covid-19 pandemic, according to Capital Economics.

Source: Financial Times

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